Black Friday & Cyber Monday Trends to Help Shape 2026 Planning & Strategy

Cyber Five broke records, but now that we’re well into December, retail leaders are focused on what those early indicators actually mean for the remainder of the season, as well as the year ahead. 

Below is a consolidated perspective, integrating publicly sourced data from Adobe Analytics, the National Retail Federation (NRF), CNN, Forbes and other major outlets.

1. Record Participation Was a Confidence Signal, Not a Full-Season Forecast

According to NRF, 202.9 million U.S. consumers participated in the five-day shopping period, the highest level since NRF began tracking the metric in 2017 and well above projections of 186.9 million. 

This early surge supported NRF’s projection that holiday spending would exceed $1.1 trillion for the first time 

Two weeks later, leaders are reporting:

• More cautious discretionary spending as budgets tighten
• A divergence between higher-income households (steady spend) and middle-income households (slower discretionary purchasing)
• A greater reliance on last-minute shopping tied to shipping cutoffs

 

Cyber Five created momentum, but has yet to define the entire season. Retailers should use these early signals to recalibrate category-level demand, refine promotional depth and pressure-test fulfillment capacity heading into December and into 2026 planning.

2. Value Intensity is Shaping Behavior More Strongly as December Progresses

CNN reports that while overall Black Friday sales rose 4.1% per Mastercard SpendingPulse, inflation means real growth may be closer to 1%. Salesforce data further highlights this tension:

• Average selling prices rose 7% year over year, influenced by tariffs and inflation.
• Order volumes fell 1%, and units per transaction dropped 2%, demonstrating shoppers’ precision in purchase decisions.

 

This dynamic has intensified in early December, with leaders in the CommerceNext community observing:

• Higher sensitivity to discount messaging
• Stronger performance in categories framed as practical gifting or everyday value
• More mission-driven shopping behavior, both online and in stores

 

Value must be explicit, not implied, which means retailers should tighten the alignment between price and perceived value, spotlight practical benefits in their messaging and test more precise segmentation to convert increasingly mission-driven shoppers.

3. AI Has Shifted from a Novelty Spike to a Persistent Revenue Engine

The most dramatic jump came from shoppers’ use of AI. Adobe reported AI-driven traffic to retail sites surged 805% YoY on Black Friday. Forbes reported that Salesforce found $14.2 billion in global online sales, including $3 billion in the U.S., were influenced by AI agents.

Now, retailers are still seeing:

• Higher conversion rates when AI-guided recommendations are deployed
• Faster decision-making for late-season shoppers
• AI tools being used for deal comparison, product discovery and customer service triage

 

The takeaway is clear: AI is now a front-end revenue engine and must be treated as a core customer experience channel heading into 2026.

4. Ecommerce led Cyber Five, but Stores are Powering Mission-Driven Shopping

Online commerce once again posted major gains. Adobe recorded $44.2 billion in online spending across the full holiday weekend, up 7.7% YOY, with Black Friday alone reaching a record $11.8 billion.

But stores remain strategically important. NRF reported 129.5 million consumers shopped in stores, up 3% YOY.

Pass-by retail analytics showed:

• 1.17% in-store traffic growth overall
• 7.9% growth specifically at department stores

 

The drivers:

• Last-mile gifting and urgency
• BOPIS and same-day fulfillment
• Exclusive in-store perks (e.g., Target and Lowe’s giveaways)
• High Gen Z turnout for differentiated deals

 

Retailers that integrate stores into their late-season value proposition are outperforming. Now is the time to lean into store-enabled urgency, expand BOPIS and same-day fulfillment windows and double down on exclusive in-store value that converts Gen Z and last-minute shoppers.

5. Flat Discounting and Elevated Product Costs Are Challenging Margin Protection

Salesforce and Adobe both reported discount levels remained similar to 2024, even as product costs rose. That means deals feel less dramatic to consumers, reinforcing the need for sharper value communication.

BNPL usage climbed with its spending rising to 8.9% YoY, driving $747.5 million in online spend on Black Friday, according to Adobe.

Retailers are walking a tightrope between volume and profitability, so leaders should recalibrate promotional depth, guide BNPL adoption toward strategically valuable baskets and refine value communication to balance conversion with margin preservation.

What Retail Leaders Should Prioritize in 2026

Based on conversations across the CommerceNext community:

1. Reinforce value with precision. Consumers want clarity on utility, durability and gifting fit.
2. Use AI to accelerate late-season decisions. AI recommendations, back-in-stock alerts and curated collections are lifting conversion.
3. Treat stores as last-mile engines. In-stock visibility, BOPIS speed and extended hours matter more than ever.
4. Protect margin through targeted promotions. Promotional depth does not equal effectiveness. Smarter segmentation does.
5. Focus retargeting and remarketing on mission shoppers. Late-season buyers have clear intent. Reduce friction and close the sale.
   

 

These themes will be front and center at the 2026 CommerceNext Growth Show, where we’ll dive deeper into consumer behavior, future-ready growth strategies and the technologies transforming retail. Register now to secure your spot.